Aaron Judge is one of the most dominant players in the game today, and one of the most important players on the New York Yankees. He’s a two-time All-Star, a Silver Slugger, and a Home Run Derby champion. He’s also a fan favorite and the face of the Yankees. With all of that said, re-signing Aaron Judge is still a risky move for the team. Here is why.
Risk of Injury
Aaron Judge is a slugger, and as such, he takes risks when he’s at the plate. He’s a big target and as a result, pitchers often come after him aggressively. His size also means he’s more prone to injury and has a longer recovery time. In 2017, he was restricted to 112 games due to a shoulder injury, and in 2019 he had a recurring oblique strain that plagued him for over two months. Any injury could sideline him for a lengthy period of time, which could be disastrous for the Yankees’ chances of making a deep postseason run.
Relative Lack of Production
Despite his undeniable talent, Aaron Judge’s production has fluctuated since his remarkable rookie season in 2017. In 2018, he hit just .278 with 27 home runs, and though he improved his production significantly in 2019, he still posted a below-average slugging percentage at just .520. He also had problems with strikeouts, striking out in an incredible 32.7% of his at-bats, the highest percentage of his career. This lack of consistency makes it difficult to know what kind of production the Yankees can expect from him moving forward.
Long-Term Price Tag
Signing Aaron Judge to a long-term deal is going to be expensive. While no one knows how much he will ultimately demand, it’s safe to assume it will be a hefty sum. The Yankees have already committed to paying their star players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton a combined $400 million dollars over the next several years. Adding Aaron Judge’s salary to that figure may put them in a difficult spot financially, making it hard to sign any other impact players.
Declining Defense
While Aaron Judge is known for his offense, his defense has started to decline in recent years. His defensive rating has decreased every season since his rookie year, and his UZR has dropped from 14.4 in 2017 to -3.3 in 2019. His arm also seemed to lack accuracy this past season, as he made some poor throws that cost the Yankees runs. This, combined with his slowed foot speed, puts him at a greater risk of making costly mistakes in the field.
Impact on Other Free Agents
By re-signing Aaron Judge, the Yankees will lock up a sizable portion of their payroll. That could limit their ability to re-sign other free agents such as Didi Gregorius and Dellin Betances. Didi is coming off a solid season in which he hit a career-high 75 extra-base hits, while Betances was an All-Star in both 2017 and 2018. Losing either one of these players could be detrimental to the team’s World Series hopes.
Alternative Options
There are some alternative options that the Yankees could pursue instead of re-signing Aaron Judge. They could look to sign a cheaper option such as Nelson Cruz or Yasiel Puig, both of whom have had remarkable seasons in recent years and could provide the team with an extra bat in the lineup. They could also look to trade for a player like Kris Bryant or Anthony Rendon, who would not only fit into the Yankees’ lineup but could potentially be had for a fraction of the price of re-signing Aaron Judge.
Re-signing Aaron Judge is a risk for the Yankees. Despite his undeniable talent, he has shown signs of inconsistency at the plate and his defense has declined in recent years. There is also the matter of his injury history and the significant impact that re-signing him would have on the Yankees’ already hefty payroll. While signing Aaron Judge would no doubt bring joy to the team’s fan base, there may be some better, cheaper options out there that can provide the team with the same winning results.
